El Niño may skip hurricane season: what it means for Florida

The 2019 hurricane season was the fourth consecutive season with above normal storm activity. With early signs pointing to no El Niño this year, we may see the trend continue.

Early climate signals are raising red flags that El Niño will be a no-show this hurricane season, a bad sign for storm-weary states that have suffered four consecutive years of above normal activity.

Hurricanes are a low priority with coronavirus turning the world upside down, but June 1 will come regardless of what the virus is doing.

Meteorologists acknowledge March is a tricky time for predictions with Earth in the throes of seasonal metamorphosis, but the clues almost all point to a neutral or La Niña pattern come summer.

The two patterns, both recurring phases of the El Niño -Southern Oscillation cycle, are more accommodating to Atlantic tropical cyclones than the cutting western gales that shred hurricanes during an El Niño event.

February forecast models were leaning against an El Niño for the 2020 hurricane season. That was reinforced Mar. 5 with updates in the Euro (ECMWF) and the American Global Forecast System (GFS) showing a cooling over the next several months in the equatorial Pacific more consistent with a neutral or La Niña pattern.